The Forbidden Truth About Moderation: What the Science Says

For decades, the prevailing wisdom has been absolute: if you have a problem with alcohol, you must quit completely. Abstinence is presented as the only path, the only “right” way. To suggest otherwise is often dismissed as denial.

But what if that narrative is incomplete? What if the data tells a more complex, and for many, a more hopeful story?

The Evidence for a Spectrum of Solutions

Cultural bias often dismisses moderation out of hand, despite evidence that it can be a successful strategy for a significant number of people.

• A RAND Corporation study found that nearly one in five individuals who were alcohol-dependent were able to moderate their drinking successfully over the long term.
• Even more compelling, a study in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol found that 22% of people with severe alcohol use disorder (alcoholism) were able to reduce their drinking to low-risk levels.

This isn’t to say moderation works for everyone. For many, especially those with the most severe dependencies, abstinence is the safest and most sustainable path. But for a large cohort—the “Josh” who is struggling but not yet at rock bottom—moderation is not a myth. It is a viable goal.

The Sobering Reality of the “One-Size-Fits-All” Approach

Let’s look at the current landscape of substance use in America:

• 30 million Americans qualify as alcohol-dependent, a figure that continues to rise.
• Among those, just 7.6% receive any form of specialty treatment. This means 92.4% are navigating their challenges without formal help. (Note: Informal support groups like AA are not counted as “specialty treatment” in these federal statistics).
• When you include drug addiction, the number soars to over 48.7 million Americans with a substance use disorder.

These numbers are staggering. And they exist despite the cultural dominance of a single solution. The hard truth is that the traditional models of rehab and AA, while life-saving for many, have a proven success rate that hovers around 10% for achieving one year of constant sobriety.

Ask yourself: Would you fly on an airplane if 90% of them crashed? Would you trust a medical treatment with a 90% failure rate? The persistence of this crisis suggests we desperately need a broader toolkit and more conversations about harm reduction and managed use, not fewer.

A Truce, Grounded in Faith and Pragmatism

This is the heart of Grateful Truce. It’s an acknowledgment that the war on ourselves isn’t working. A truce is not a surrender; it’s a negotiated peace. It’s a conscious decision to move from a state of conflict to a state of mindful control.

This approach is deeply supported by scripture. The Bible doesn’t call us to a life of helplessness, but to one of empowered stewardship and renewal.

“So whether you eat or drink or whatever you do, do it all for the glory of God.” – 1 Corinthians 10:31

This verse isn’t about perfection; it’s about intention. It asks us to bring mindfulness to our actions, to ensure that what we do—even drinking—is done in a way that honors the life we’ve been given.

“Do not conform to the pattern of this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind.” – Romans 12:2

The “pattern of this world” is autopilot drinking. It’s numbing out. The “renewing of your mind” is that moment of pause. It’s the conscious choice to question the impulse and choose a different path. It is the very foundation of moderation.

The Bottom Line

Abstinence is a valid and necessary path for many. But it is not the only path.

Moderation is a valid and achievable path for some. But it is not a path for everyone.

The goal is not to replace one dogma with another. The goal is to provide options. To offer hope based on data, not just dogma. To empower you with information and strategies to find what brings balance and peace to your life.

If you’re among the 92.4% navigating this without formal help, know this: you have options. Your journey is your own. And for some, a truce is not only possible—it’s already within reach.

Chris
Author of Grateful Truce

References:

1. RAND Corporation Study on Alcohol Dependence.
2. Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, “Prevalence and Correlates of Recovery from Substance Use Problems,” (2018).
3. National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), 2022 Data.
4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Data on Opioid Overdose Deaths.

P.S. Did this perspective resonate with you? Does it challenge what you’ve been told? Leave a comment below—let’s have a compassionate conversation. If you know someone who needs to see this message of hope, please like and share.