“Wine is a mocker, strong drink is raging: and whosoever is deceived thereby is not wise.”
— Proverbs 20:1 (KJV)

A recent Gallup survey made headlines by suggesting that alcohol consumption in the United States is on a three-year decline. They provide you the analysis of their survey showing 1000 people answered their phones or approximately 0.000004% of the adult population. On the surface, this seems like hopeful news. But does this tell the whole story? Or is it a dangerous oversimplification that masks a much grimmer reality?

When we pull back the curtain and look at the hard data—from corporate sales figures to public health crises—a different, more alarming picture emerges: while the number of drinkers may be fluctuating, the grip of addiction is tightening, and the landscape of substance abuse is shifting dramatically.

The Contradiction: Corporate Sales vs. Self-Reported Use

If drinking is truly going down, why are the bottom lines of the world’s largest alcohol producers consistently going up?

• Anheuser-Busch InBev: The world’s largest brewer reported 2023 revenue of $59.38 billion, a significant increase from previous years, driven largely by premium brand sales and higher-price products in the U.S. market.
• Molson Coors: Reported its highest annual net sales revenue in a decade for 2023, with net sales growing over 9% in the fourth quarter alone, attributing growth to strong performance in its premium portfolio.
• Constellation Brands (Modelo, Corona, Robert Mondavi Wine): Posted record net sales of $9.6 billion for fiscal year 2023, with beer net sales alone up 7%.
• E. & J. Gallo Winery: Remains the largest exporter of California wine, with sales consistently dominating the U.S. market, indicating sustained, high-volume consumption.

This trend points to a critical insight: the average amount of alcohol consumed per drinker may be increasing. The market is shifting toward higher-proof, premium products, suggesting those who are drinking are drinking more potent beverages.

The Rise of “Replacement” Drugs

The conversation cannot stop at alcohol. To understand the full scope of the addiction crisis, we must look at the explosive growth in other substances, which often serve as replacements or additions to alcohol.

• Marijuana: With widespread legalization, cannabis use has hit all-time highs. A 2022 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) found that 52.5 million Americans aged 12 or older used marijuana in the past year—a massive increase over the past decade.
• Psychedelics: Use of hallucinogens like LSD, MDMA (ecstasy), and psilocybin (magic mushrooms) has significantly increased among adults, with past-year use reaching historic levels according to NIH data.
• Stimulants: Cocaine production and availability are at record highs. Meanwhile, prescriptions for stimulants like Adderall have skyrocketed, leading to widespread misuse.
• The Opioid Crisis: This remains America’s most devastating public health disaster. Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid 50-100 times more potent than morphine, is now the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45. Over 100,000 overdose deaths occurred in the most recent 12-month reporting period, a tragic record largely driven by illicit fentanyl.

The Rooms of Recovery: A Telling Indicator

If substance use were declining, we would expect to see stabilization or a decrease in the number of people seeking help. The opposite is true.

While anonymous fellowships like AA and NA do not release official membership statistics, anecdotal evidence from meeting directories and regional intergroups suggests attendance has not seen a decline and may have increased post-pandemic. Furthermore, the U.S. rehab industry continues to be a $42+ billion market, reflecting sustained, high demand for treatment services that would not exist if the problem were abating.

The Conclusion the Data Supports

The notion that substance abuse is “going down” is a misleading half-truth. The reality is far more complex and concerning:

1. Heavier Consumption: While some may be drinking less, a significant portion of the population is consuming stronger alcohol and in greater quantities.
2. Substance Shifting: Many are not quitting substances; they are switching from alcohol to marijuana, psychedelics, prescription pills, or harder drugs.
3. The Poly-Drug User: The modern addict is often a poly-drug user, blending alcohol with other substances, creating a more dangerous and complex addiction profile.
4. Unprecedented Danger: The drug supply is more toxic than ever, with fentanyl contaminating everything from heroin to counterfeit pills, making any “recreational” use a potential game of Russian roulette.

The Gallup survey captures a sliver of the truth. The full picture, painted by sales data, overdose death rates, and drug use statistics, reveals a nation still deeply in the throes of a worsening addiction crisis. This isn’t a time to declare victory; it’s a time to demand more effective, compassionate, and realistic solutions—like the possibility of a truce—for the millions who are still suffering.

Here is a YouTube short I did on this topic:

— Chris
(Author, “Grateful Truce”)

Sources: U.S. SEC Annual Reports (2023), NIH National Survey on Drug Use and Health (2022), CDC Overdose Death Data, industry trade publications (Beverage Dynamics, Wine Business Monthly).